The Unlocking Value Bulletin #16
Market Shifts, Emerging Opportunities & Bold Moves in CRE
Welcome to a new issue of the Unlocking Real Estate Value newsletter. Each week I will provide you with exclusive advice and professional insights to help you realise long-term value through real estate development.
This week, I’ve curated ten pieces that map where CRE is moving. You’ll see AI shift from hype to utility: an Excel agent that builds working DCFs, a sober take on what AI can and can’t do, and the “Superworker” playbook using agent teams to compress cycle times.
Strategy also plays a role: why branding is a key leasing and pricing lever, how distributed carry can include external operators who generate alpha, and why CAT A+ fit-outs often misallocate capital expenditures. Market signals matter: Riyadh’s edges are becoming central as growth corridors mature, while Toronto’s AAA core tightens, reinforcing the flight to quality.
There’s product realism as well—a candid teardown of an “AI tenant experience” pitch and a policy reminder that pushing capital away rarely solves housing.
Deep Research features are performing well: paired with domain context, they now expedite DCF review, refine site selection, and support faster, better decisions.
Let’s dive in.
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1. An Excel AI agent that makes working DCF spreadsheets.
This post spotlights an AI agent that reads assumptions, builds formulas, and iterates DCF models directly in Excel. The takeaway isn’t “AI replaces analysts,” but that junior workflows compress dramatically. Expect faster scenario testing, cleaner audit trails, and a sharper focus on judgment, risk, and value creation rather than cell‑by‑cell mechanics.
2. Most real estate operators underrate the power of branding.
A timely reminder that brand isn’t just a logo—it’s a pricing and absorption lever. Strong positioning improves tenant trust, leasing velocity, and exit liquidity. In a crowded market, brand clarity helps operators defend rent, reduce incentives, and win mandates. The smartest teams treat brand as an asset they actively compound.
3. As Riyadh grows, what was once hidden on the periphery becomes unmissable.
Rapid expansion in Riyadh is reshaping submarket dynamics. Peripheral logistics, mixed‑use fringes, and infrastructure‑adjacent plots are moving into the spotlight as growth corridors mature. The message for investors: revisit “edge” assumptions, re‑map demand drivers, and get ahead of rezoning and transport upgrades that can quickly reprice formerly overlooked land.
4. There are lots of erroneous assumptions people make about what AI can do in real estate.
A sober calibration of AI’s limits and strengths. Expect huge wins on document synthesis, portfolio diagnostics, and first‑pass underwriting; expect gaps around messy inputs, ground truth, and incentives. High performers frame AI as a co‑pilot: they enforce data hygiene, define guardrails, and push models where judgment—not just pattern matching—matters.
5. Over the past year, I’ve written about the rise of the Superworker and hinted at my own daily use of an AI agent team.
The “Superworker” thesis continues to gain traction: an operator augmented by task-specific agents can outproduce larger teams. Practical examples include automated memo drafts, market scans, and red‑flag reviews. Value is evident in cycle-time reduction and decision quality, provided there’s clear ownership, prompts as a process, and a feedback loop tied to outcomes.
6. These three trends are reshaping private markets. The one that excites me most? Distributed carry, but extended to external operators
A provocative angle on aligning incentives: push carry beyond GP teams to include specialised external operators and creators of alpha. Expect nimbler partnerships, deeper local knowledge, and faster execution. Structures must balance governance and economics, but distributed carry can unlock overlooked pipelines where capability—not headcount—drives value.
7. The vacancy rate in Toronto’s AAA financial core buildings is down to 3% from 7% (a 4% drop) over the last year, with plenty more to be announced.
Green shoots in prime office: Toronto’s AAA core shows tightening, underscoring the bifurcation between best‑in‑class and the rest. If sustained, this supports rental resilience, incentivises flight‑to‑quality fit‑outs, and pressures obsolete stock. Watch leasing momentum, sublease withdrawals, and capital flows migrating toward newer, amenity‑rich, transit‑oriented assets.
8. Just watched a proptech founder pitch his “AI tenant experience platform” to a room full of real estate people last week.
A candid debrief on product‑market fit. Many “AI tenant experience” tools over‑index on features and under‑deliver on outcomes owners pay for: occupancy, rent, and retention. The lesson: anchor roadmaps to landlord economics, integrate with existing stacks, and prove ROI with pilots that measure behaviour change—not just clicks.
9. People don’t like the rich, but pushing them out achieves nothing.
A provocative policy reflection: anti‑wealth sentiment rarely fixes housing or urban inequality. Capital flight shrinks tax bases and slows renewal. Better levers: supply‑side acceleration, targeted incentives, and partnerships that capture upside for cities while keeping investors at the table. Cities grow when they channel capital, not repel it.
10. The Hidden Flaws of CAT A+ Office Fit-Outs
A sharp critique of CAT A+ strategies: what looks “plug‑and‑play” often embeds misalignment—generic specs, misjudged densities, and costly rework on lease. Owners should quantify the true life-cycle cost, evaluate targeted CAT A with curated CAT B options, and align design with market segments to avoid sunk capital expenditures that do not increase rent.
That’s all for today.
— Carlo
Founder and Managing Director Benigni
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This post is sponsored by Benigni a specialist development manager working with international investors to realise long-term value through optimised development strategies. To learn more click this link to our website.
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Love the latest bulletin focus on AI - we’ve left some comments about the Excel Agent tool in the LinkedIn article. I don’t think it’s ready for the workplace environment (creating more work than it resolves) *yet* but the progress is certainly an eye-opener!