Entitlement Math: A Regional Framework for Unlocking Value
Welcome to a new issue of the Unlocking Real Estate Value newsletter. Each week I will provide you with exclusive advice and professional insights to help you realise long-term value through real estate development.
This post is a guest post, written by
for . Be sure to check out Ehson’s Substack, to follow him! His choice of topic speaks to how challenging real estate development can be and how often hidden rules of the game and politics come into play when trying to get a project over the line. Enjoy and let me know if you have any topics you would like to contribute in upcoming posts on . Thanks, CarloHit reply and tell us why.
When I was at Ventas, someone once laid out a surprisingly accurate formula for understanding how development actually gets done in America. It had nothing to do with capital markets or design specs. It was about who you need to win over to unlock value:
“West of the Rockies, you need to get the neighbor on board.
Between the Mississippi and the Rockies, it’s the politician.
East of the Mississippi, you need buy-in from a wealthy stakeholder.”
It was said half in jest, but as time went on, I saw just how much that framework explained.
Because behind every site plan and feasibility model is the harder question: who controls the bottleneck to value? It changes based on geography—and so should your approach.
West of the Rockies: The Neighbor as Gatekeeper
In the western U.S., entitlement risk tends to live at the hyper-local level. Think single-family neighborhoods with discretionary review power, CEQA appeals, and city council meetings where “community character” becomes a catch-all objection.
Even industrial or office projects, especially near the coast, can get sidelined by a handful of organised neighbours. That’s why multifamily developers in L.A. or San Francisco spend as much time modelling litigation risk as they do yield on cost.
Water rights are a secondary gatekeeper here, particularly in inland California and Arizona. In some cases, no amount of density bonus math can overcome the constraints of limited water allocations.
Unlocking value means understanding what the neighbour actually fears—and whether there's a path to mitigate it. Sometimes it's a traffic study. Sometimes it's a community benefit agreement. But you have to model that friction into the pro format.
The Middle: Convince the Politician
From Texas up through Colorado, influence is more centralised. Here, entitlement is often a political process—more transparent in some cases, more transactional in others.
This region tends to be more pro-growth, but the complexity lies in aligning with local economic development goals. Industrial near airports? Usually greenlit. Dense multifamily in historically single-family areas? That still requires finesse.
If you're investing here, your highest leverage tool might not be design—it’s alignment. Political capital can unlock by-right status, tax abatement, or infrastructure credits. But misread the local priorities, and the entire capital stack becomes theoretical.
East of the Mississippi: The Unseen Stakeholder
In older, denser markets like New York, Boston, or D.C., the most powerful stakeholder isn’t always public or vocal. It’s often a well-connected property owner, business leader, or institutional landholder with soft veto power.
Sometimes it’s air rights. Sometimes it’s a shadow interest in a nearby property. In these cities, vertical zoning (and who controls it) can be more consequential than anything happening at the street level.
And in many cases, the formal zoning map only tells half the story—the informal networks of influence determine what gets fast-tracked versus what dies in limbo.
Unlocking value means understanding not just what’s allowed, but who benefits or loses from your success, and building from there.
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This post is sponsored by Benigni a specialist development manager working with international investors to realise long-term value through optimised development strategies. To learn more click this link to our website.
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